When Donald Trump insists that he’s winning the presidential election, sometimes he’s correct. He’s simply cherry-picking the three daily tracking polls that have him jockeying with Hillary Clinton for the lead.
A joint project between the University of Southern California and the Los Angeles Times reports Trump is in the lead by a single percentage point.
The polling partnership between Investor’s Business Daily and the polling company Technometrica also finds a neck-and-neck race — the latest results released Wednesday put Clinton in the lead by 0.6 points.
Once upon a time, Donald Trump would talk about his poll numbers constantly. Two years ago this month, he first surged past Jeb Bush in Republican primary polling and his success became a staple of his tweets and his campaign patter.
The three polls are more obscure and, at the saign and are often conducted by the nation’s most prominent news organizationsme time, more prolific than the major national surveys that dominate news coverage of the campa.
Rasmussen’s numbers were always above average, in part a function of the pollsters’ reliance on likely voters, a group that tends to skew to the right.
Right now, the RCP average of polls has Trump at 39.2 percent approval.Rasmussen has him at … 39 percent.
TIPP pollster Raghavan Mayur addressed the Post’s critiques in a phone interview with POLITICO on Wednesday. First, Mayur said, TIPP does not weight their poll to ensure they have the right mix of voters by education level — despite the fact education has been a defining fissure in this race, especially among white voters.
“I have done extensive testing about that quite a while back,” he said. “It never gave me good results. … I also think that people tend to overstate their education. That’s why I feel it’s not a very good measure.”
Again, this is among likely voters, a group that’s central not only to Trump’s reelection but to the chances of Republicans in next year’s lower-turnout midterm elections. Highly partisan voters make up a disproportionate share of the primary electorate. Rasmussen’s polling suggests that Trump’s approval with this group is headed south.
In short: Don’t expect Trump to tweet about Rasmussen poll. But, to be fair, it does make that 48 percent result look like something worth celebrating by contrast.